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NAIOP South Florida’s Annual Economic Outlook Panel Delves Into Market Insights for 2023

NAIOP South Florida recently hosted its annual economic outlook panel to gauge the economic forecast for 2023. Marcus & Millichap and Risk Strategies hosted the event and the panel of commercial real estate professionals included John Chang, Senior Vice President and National Director of Marcus & Millichap, Chronos Underwriters Chief Executive Officer and President John Allen, Property Tax FirstPointe Advisors Managing Partner Brian DePotter and Itasca Construction Associates Vice President Sandra Pabon. Marcus & Millichap Senior Vice President and past NAIOP President Ryan Nee served as moderator. 

 “There are many benefits of being a member of NAIOP South Florida, from continued education to networking to career advancement,” Jules R. Morgan says, Executive Director of NAIOP South Florida, a Commercial Real Estate Development Association. “This annual panel discussion is always an important one because it sets the tone for the entire year ahead and brings together some of the brightest and most well-informed minds in the industry to share their views with our members of how economic conditions will impact their business.” 

 During the discussion, the industry insiders shared their perspectives on whether the U.S. economy will slip into a recession in 2023. The consensus was considerably more favorable than many predicted for 2023. Still, speakers also emphasized the “Florida factor,” which describes the continued influx of people to the state as a primary reason for continued regional employment and economic growth.   

“In 2022, Florida came in first across the United States in terms of population growth,” Chang says. “Overall, we’ve added 4.5 million jobs, the unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, there are 10.5 million job openings, wages are up 4.6%, retail sales are up 3%, and the 10-year treasury yield is at 3.5%. Those are solid numbers, and while interest rates have placed our industry into a stall, we seem to be leaning more towards ‘slowcession,’ than an actual recession, and here in South Florida, it may not even be noticed.” 

 Another highly debated topic the panel delved into was related to insurance market forecasts and rate hikes. 

 “The Florida insurance market is in a perfect storm right now, with carriers refusing to write business here, but the state has been doing a tremendous job getting in front of the legal issues to curb the problem,” Allen says. “We are hoping that in the absence of a major hurricane or world crisis similar to the war in Ukraine, and with a reduction in inflation, Florida’s attractiveness will improve, and prices will eventually begin to come back down.” 

 Understanding America’s labor shortage across all sectors and why workforce participation remains below pre-pandemic levels was also particularly interesting to attendees.   

 “We have more than four million open jobs without employees to fill them, which is due in part to several factors including early retirement of the baby boomer generation brought on by the pandemic, dual income families opting to move out of the urban core so that one family member can stay home and care for children, continued fears of COVID and a significant drop in immigrant workers relocating to the United States,” Chang says. “Prior to 2016, we welcomed more than 1.2 million immigrant workers each year, and by 2020 that number had dropped to 20,000 people.” 

 For more information about NAIOP South Florida and upcoming events, visit naiopsfl.org

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Drew Limsky

Drew Limsky

Editor-in-Chief

BIOGRAPHY

Drew Limsky joined Lifestyle Media Group in August 2020 as Editor-in-Chief of South Florida Business & Wealth. His first issue of SFBW, October 2020, heralded a reimagined structure, with new content categories and a slew of fresh visual themes. “As sort of a cross between Forbes and Robb Report, with a dash of GQ and Vogue,” Limsky says, “SFBW reflects South Florida’s increasingly sophisticated and dynamic business and cultural landscape.”

Limsky, an avid traveler, swimmer and film buff who holds a law degree and Ph.D. from New York University, likes to say, “I’m a doctor, but I can’t operate—except on your brand.” He wrote his dissertation on the nonfiction work of Joan Didion. Prior to that, Limsky received his B.A. in English, summa cum laude, from Emory University and earned his M.A. in literature at American University in connection with a Masters Scholar Award fellowship.

Limsky came to SFBW at the apex of a storied career in journalism and publishing that includes six previous lead editorial roles, including for some of the world’s best-known brands. He served as global editor-in-chief of Lexus magazine, founding editor-in-chief of custom lifestyle magazines for Cadillac and Holland America Line, and was the founding editor-in-chief of Modern Luxury Interiors South Florida. He also was the executive editor for B2B magazines for Acura and Honda Financial Services, and he served as travel editor for Conde Nast. Magazines under Limsky’s editorship have garnered more than 75 industry awards.

He has also written for many of the country’s top newspapers and magazines, including The New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Miami Herald, Boston Globe, USA Today, Worth, Robb Report, Afar, Time Out New York, National Geographic Traveler, Men’s Journal, Ritz-Carlton, Elite Traveler, Florida Design, Metropolis and Architectural Digest Mexico. His other clients have included Four Seasons, Acqualina Resort & Residences, Yahoo!, American Airlines, Wynn, Douglas Elliman and Corcoran. As an adjunct assistant professor, Limsky has taught journalism, film and creative writing at the City University of New York, Pace University, American University and other colleges.