Zillow economists have predicted that U.S. home prices would rise 4.9% between August 2023 and August 2024, a slight decrease from Zillow’s earlier estimate of 6.5%.
“Zillow’s forecast of the nation’s typical home value was revised downward this month due to the anticipation of higher mortgage rates and a slight decrease in market tightness,” wrote economists at Zillow.
But the larger message is the continued resilience of home prices, which is great news for homeowners.
Last week, South Florida Business & Wealth held a spirited CEO Connect—called Building Connections—at DUNE by Laurent Tourondel. The evening featured a weighty discussion about the current economic landscape between Tom Jalics, chief investment strategist at Fifth Third Private Bank, and yours truly.
After the event, I caught up with Tom and asked him to comment on Zillow’s prediction. While he declined to characterize Zillow’s prognostication prowess, he did share this rosy take on home prices in the context of the current economic landscape:
“With the rise in mortgage rates (30-year fixed rate north of 7.5%—up from under 3% 18 months ago), current homeowners have a major disincentive to move,” Jalics said. “This has caused a lack of home inventory on the market (relative to the last several years). Fewer supply of homes, and a still-robust job market (people can afford to buy homes) means that there is greater competition for homes, putting upward pressure on home prices. As long as this dynamic remains in place (high financing costs, low inventory, strong job market), there will likely be upward pressure on national home prices.”
Jalics’ remarks reinforced his bullish stance on homeownership, which was on full display at DUNE; these kinds of specific insights captivated the audience. “Whether you came—and stayed—for the networking, the open bar, the tenderloin on polenta, or the bracing conversation with Tom Jalics, the financial whiz and chief investment strategist at Fifth Third Bank (or all of the above) the team at SFBW was thrilled to see such a healthy and enthusiastic turnout,” said SFBW Managing Director Kim Sarni, adding, “We’re all about Connections Done Right, and the evening was a fine reminder that we’re a monthly print magazine, a thrice-weekly electronic newsletter, and a digital magazine that’s updated daily—but our robust event schedule is the backbone of our brand.”
I agree. There’s nothing like seeing members of our extended SFBW world in person. The turnout from Fifth Third Bank was robust, and we loved catching up with past cover stars like John Stunson (Scenic Group USA’s VP of finance and admiration) and Joe Cox (president and CEO of the Museum of Discovery & Science), as well as business leaders who show up to every SFBW event—and lots of new faces.
Building Connections was sponsored by USI, Fifth Third Bank, CAN Community Health and Lincoln Financial. For future sponsorship opportunities, please reach out to Kim at firstname.lastname@example.org.