Model shows Florida COVID-19 deaths per day peaking earlier

State website allows searches by zip codes

Florida COVID-19 deaths are now projected to peak at 242 a day on April 21 rather than the first week of May, according to estimates by the University of Washington.

Projections of daily deaths in Florida by the University of Washington

That peak is 106 more than the previous forecast of 136 deaths a day in the first week of May, made by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine.

However, the fever chart’s shaded area has a lot of uncertainty, which is reminiscent of how Floridians often get inexact forecasts on where hurricanes will hit. The worst case in the shaded area of the chart shows 1,000 deaths a day, which reinforces the need for social distancing and other preventive measures.

The institute projects that total deaths in Florida will level off near the start of June and lead to a total of 6,770 deaths in the state by August. State figures show 236 deaths so far and 12,925 positive residence.

State figures show a drop in new cases

One potentially positive sign is a drop in new cases reported by the state for the past two days. The state website allows viewing of cases by zip code and by county.

The U.S. Health Weather Map developed by Kinsa indicates South Florida is a national hotspot for influenza diseases, but the trend is decreasing. Kinsa sells internet-connected thermometers that help it aggregate data. The company also has a free app that allows the public to manually enter data from other thermometers.




Kevin Gale
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